The President of the Management Board of NLB Skladi, Kruno Abramovič, says that in 2016, Slovenian mutual funds recorded net inflows of over EUR 13 million. The majority was contributed by NLB Skladi with its 59.72 million euros in net inflows, which brought about a high growth of its market share.
For a number of years now, the best-selling mutual fund has been NLB Skladi – Globalni uravnoteženi. Abramovič says that in the EU, last year mutual funds were selling very well, as the total net inflows amounted to as much as 365 billion euros and were always positive, with the exception of January and June when two major corrections were noticed in financial markets. In relation to the forecast for asset management in Slovenia, Kruno Abramovič was optimistic, as he sees the opportunity after normalisation of the interest rates for deposits, which are right now in the other countries of the developed world slightly lower than the inflation, in the “europeanisation” of saving habits in Slovenian households. A positive contribution to sales will be also the expected positive return in financial markets and the continued economic recovery in Slovenia.
Investors will be looking for returns from riskier investments
For 2017, the Head of analyses of NLB Skladi Marko Bombač predicted an increase of the economic growth – especially in the developed world. The recovery will be encouraged also by the generally loose financial policy of central banks, especially the European, Japanese and Chinese. Bombač says low interest rates will stimulate investors to look for more profitable investments. “Our most probable scenario is that the global growth of share prices, including dividends and in euros, will amount to around 7 percent,” predicts Bombač.
»In terms of regions, we mostly favour European shares, where the valuations are, globally speaking, among the most favourable,« says Marko Bombač. Furthermore, NLB Skladi expect also a positive surprise regarding the speed of recovery of the euro zone, while the ECB’s financial policy will remain loose at least up to the second part of 2018. In terms of political risk, NLB Skladi expect a decrease in the power of eurosceptic parties which were gaining popularity in the recent years, and consequently a new wave of optimism in stock exchanges. “As regards the industries, we mostly favour the financial sector. The European banking sector, which is now much better capitalised than before the financial crisis, was for example in the recent years, in our opinion, too much under attack from investors. The pessimism about the ability to generate profits in an environment of zero (negative) interest will decrease with their growth, and particularly in the steeper curve,” says Bombač.
With the recovery of the global economy and the lowering of the unemployment rate, NLB Skladi expect an increasing pressure on inflation. This will eventually lead to more restrictive monetary policies and thus higher interest rates, which has a negative impact on bond prices over this period. »We are extremely disfavoured towards bonds,« was the opinion of the Head of analyses of NLB Skladi. As negative, he pointed out especially long-term bonds with a higher credit rating.